SUNNI RIYAHD IN ? ----- SHIITE TEHRAN OUT? ---- OR SELL OUT?

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (R), Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal (C|) and Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh walk inside the Grand Mosque in Mecca on February 9, 2007.

FROM PALESTINIAN PUNDIT

DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis
(As suspicious as I am of Debka, this analysis explains many things and should be considered)

• DEMOTED "....The Damascus-based hard-line Khaled Meshaal, who had signed a pact with Tehran,

• DEMOTED as was the second signatory of the Palestinian reconciliation package, the moderate, pro-Western Mahmoud Abbas.

• PROMOTED in their place was prime minister Ismail Haniyeh, leader of Hamas’ political wing.

• PROMOTED Abbas’ ally, Gaza Strip Fatah commander Muhammad Dahlan, can expect a senior post in the Hamas-led government.

• PROMOTED Another winner is his business partner, the Palestinian-Kurdish tycoon Muhammad Rashid, who has turned his coat at least twice in two weeks while jostling to regain the influence he enjoyed behind the shoulder of the late Yasser Arafat who died in 2004.

• laying down the elements of cooperation between the Saudi government and Hamas political leaders in Gaza and

• effacing the effects of the US-led international boycott of the Hamas-ruled Palestinian government.

The Saudi king and the Hamas prime minister agreed on a six-point plan for subsequent incorporation as the core of the Mecca accord:

1. A shared interest in weakening Israel and active collaboration to achieve this goal;

2. This collaboration is based on personal trust between Abdullah and Haniyeh. As middlemen, they appointed Saudi intelligence chief Prince Moqrin bin Abdulaziz and the Palestinian Muhammed Rashid;

3. The Saudi throne endorsed Ismail Hanya as Palestinian prime minister on condition that he introduced members of the Fatah young guard, led by Dahlan, to key government positions. This group of factions, which includes the suicidal al Aqsa Suicide Brigades, aspires to take Fatah over from the veteran leaders including Mahmoud Abbas;

4. King Abdullah personally guaranteed full Saudi diplomatic, military and financial support for the Hamas-led Palestinian government;

5. Hamas government members would not be required to recognize Israel or previous peace agreements. No mention was made of violence against Israel or the renunciation thereof;

6. The most pressing goal in Riyadh’s sights was Haniyeh’s personal guarantee to scale down in stages the Iranian and Hizballah presence in Hamas ranks with a view to banishing both from the Gaza Strip. Prince Moqrin is in charge of the quiet understandings accompanying this point of agreement, which also contains a Saudi pledge to take the place of Shiite Tehran and Hizballah by paying for all the weapons and military instructors the Palestinian group needs.

Riyadh thus reverted to its original role as the founder and banker of Hamas, which the Saudis created in the 80s as a Sunni counterweight to the Shiite Hizballah.

It is not at all sure that Haniyeh will be capable of living up to his six-point deal with the Saudi king or whether Meshaal will let him. Haniyeh leads Hamas’ political wing, but Meshaal, who was shunted aside in Mecca, is the master of the military wing. He is capable of ordering Hamas gunmen to challenge Haniyeh and thwart the deal’s execution. This would set off a fresh round of Palestinian factional warfare, which Meshaal and Abbas solemnly vowed in Mecca to halt.

Over the weekend, a delegation of Hamas military chiefs arrived in Gaza from Damascus - presumably to arrest the decline of Meshaal’s standing in Gaza as a result of the newly-reshuffled Palestinian leadership, although this is not confirmed......"