EU's united front on Russia falling amid gas needs

http://news.yahoo.com/eus-united-front-russia-falling-amid-gas-needs-093909049--finance.html
VIENNA (AP) — A clutch of countries is breaking ranks with the EU's efforts to put economic and diplomatic pressure on Russia over Ukraine and building a pipeline meant to carry huge amounts of Russian gas to their doorstep.

THE YUGOSLAVABILITY IN INDIA

clipped from: www.bharat-rakshak.com

FAILED STATES

India is ringed by failed / failing states.

• Pakistan

• Nepal

• Bangladesh

• Myanmar

Failed /failing states export instability, terrorism, religious fundamentalism, arms and drugs

CHINA

On our North, in addition, we face China, the guru that influences / or uses as proxy other countries mentioned earlier in every possible way to weigh India down.

capabilities are more important than perceived intentions, as China has demonstrated not only to India but also to the world. It has intelligently diverted international focus away from itself to North Korea, Pakistan and countries like Iran. For example, in the six country nuclear talks with North Korea , it is Beijing that calls the shots. It can switch on or off the negotiations at its will

PAKISTAN

since its creation, Pakistan has perpetually been resorting to war and export of terrorism to appropriate more Indian territory. Pakistan faces a negative profile of indoctrinated and unemployed youth trained in Islamic Jehad Factory against us. The obsession to harm us ultimately allured Pakistan to become rent-a–state country. It lives on others money. Despite being broke, Islamabad continues to fuel anti-India activities through Nepal and Bangladesh with impunity. India remains the target and operating ground for Islamic fundamentalists and terrorist groups orchestrated by ISI

New Delhi needs to evolve an alternative strategy to comprehensively defeat the adversary’s nefarious activities that poses military, nuclear and demographic inversion threats. This is a do-able proposition provided our elders can think beyond the overwhelming burden created by the inherited fault line.

New Delhi needs to move on three axes simultaneously

• New Delhi –West Asia ,

• New Delhi–Southeast Asia and

• New Delhi–Central Asia .

Out of the three, the most critical is the New Delhi-Kabul-Tehran-Moscow axis, on two counts. First, for centuries this is the route of invasions and will remain so.
Second, as the second largest consumer of oil and gas in Asia , and as one of the engines that will power the world economy, energy security is the most critical factor in India ’s national security calculus.

This resource rich territory will fall prey to Pak sponsored Talibanisation if India and other countries do not preempt it.'

it may be prudent for American capital to join hands with the Indians in a JV
This will in turn check the destructive influence of Islamabad and balance the Chinese strategic thrust

NEPAL/MAOIST

Nepal continues to slip into the Chinese sphere of influence due to counter-productive policy by New Delhi

In Nepal , the Maoists have a sizeable influence in 45 of the 75 districts, their most formidable presence being in mid-western Nepal . The Maoists have linked up with the Peoples War Group (PWG) in India . The latter in a bid to expand its influence has carved a corridor encompassing the states of Andhra Pradesh–Madhya Pradesh–Chhatisgarh–Orissa–West Bengal–Jharkhand–Bihar as shown in the map. This corridor that has been formed with ease depicts the Indian Fault Line with stark clarity on ground.

· Combine the bleak picture above with Bangladesh and Myanmar borders and the Indian Fault Line engulfs most of the eastern half of the Union

. Insurgency in varying degrees impacts on the Northeast with the exception of Mizoram and Arunachal Pradesh and has trans-border dimensions with Myanmar and Bangladesh .



The 21 to 65 km wide and 200 km long narrow Siliguri corridor between Nepal and Bangladesh is delicately poised when also considering China in the north. This corridor threatened by Kamtapuri insurgency and demographic inversion by Bangladesh can cut off the only land link to the Indian Northeast and in such an eventuality supplies will have to be maintained by air.

Consequently, Bhutan may also slip into the Chinese sphere of influence.

There is already a nexus between Maoists in Nepal and ULFA in Assam and is being enlarged to include PWG in India and Islamic terrorist groups in Bangladesh . With Dacca ’s geographical interface with five Indian states i.e. West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura and Mizoram; Indian security stands threatened by: demographic assault, arms and drug smuggling, and safe havens for Indian insurgent groups.

Islamic groups in Bangladesh under ISI tutelage, Saudi finance, and China ’s patronage, have become more vicious, thus adding another dimension to India ’s security headache.

if a vertical line from Central Uttar Pradesh southwards to Eastern Andhra Pradesh were drawn, it would lead to an ineluctale observation that India ’s Eastern Half is in turmoil. The Western Half is not only relatively progressive and peaceful but also generates most of the wealth along with the South

Just imagine the result if the Eastern Half along with Kashmir can be put in order through development and bold counter-measures, to ensure the requisite peace and stability, conducive to generation of wealth.

HINDUS VERSUS MUSLIMS

CHINA GETS MYANMAR GAS AND TAKES IT DOWN THE OLD BURMA ROAD

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clipped from: www.economist.com

Shunned by the West, Myanmar is developing ever closer commercial links with its neighbours, especially China

South-East Asia's biggest proven gas reserve lies in the Shwe field, just off the coast of Ramree Island.

This year work will begin on a pipeline to carry these riches to China. From perhaps as early as late 2009, a parallel pipe will carry Middle Eastern and African oil from a new deep-water harbour at Kyaukphyu, bypassing the Strait of Malacca and fuelling the economy of China's south-west.

India also hoped to buy the Shwe (“golden”) gas, offering the government soft loans and other inducements.

In August India signed a $150m contract for gas exploration further south iN the Gulf of Martaban.

One day India hopes to build its own pipeline into its poor, remote, insurgency-ridden north-eastern states.
In the meantime, Myanmar's biggest export market will remain Thailand. In purchases worth $2 billion a year,

Thailand's electricity authority imports gas from the Yadana and Yetagun fields

Myanmar may soon start conducting all its Chinese trade in the Chinese currency, The rationale would be to avoid Western banking sanctions. American measures introduced after the crushing of monk-led protests last September hurt Burmese financial interests in Singapore.

The new pipelines will follow the route of the old British-built Burma Road, which still carries timber, gold, gemstones and other Burmese raw materials north to China and brings in cheap manufactures. Around 20 Chinese companies are working in Myanmar on scores of projects including hydropower, mining and road-building as well as oil and gas. Ruili, the main border-crossing between northern Myanmar and China's province of Yunnan, has become a seedy boomtown.



Also, the new “Southern Silk Road”, linking India to China across northern Myanmar. Parts of the long-derelict route were first opened by the Allies during the second world war to supply Chiang Kai-shek's Chinese army in its war with the Japanese.

India's determination to develop the north-east
Yunnan needs energy supplies and markets,

TALE OF TWO UKRAINES

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clipped from: strangemaps.wordpress.com


The 2004 ‘Orange Revolution’, in which pro-western candidate Viktor Yushchenko successfully contested the rigged results of the presidential election that was ‘won’ by his pro-Russian opponent Viktor Yanukovich, seemed to place the Ukraine firmly in the western camp.

Ukrainian politics has however seen several reversals of fortune since that time, proving that Ukraine is unique among the former Soviet republics: pro-western and pro-Russian sentiments are almost completely in balance.

This map shows which of both Viktors was the victor in each of Ukraine’s regions in the (contested) November 2004 presidential elections. Each candidate has won in a remarkably contiguous area - Yushchenko winning the northwestern half of the country, Yanukovich the southeastern part.

In the years immediately following the Soviet Union’s collapse, Russia was too weak to prevent what it qualifies as EU and NATO ‘encirclement’ (an old Russian geopolitical worry). But now, a resurgent Russia flush with oil money insists on checking what it sees as further encroachment by the EU and(especially) the US.

The Ukraine however, with 45 million inhabitants and about the size of France, is firmly within Russia’s Near Abroad. Its east is ethnically mainly Russian (Ukrainian nationalism tends to be a western thing), and Russia has strategic interests in the Crimea (Russian until 1954, when it was transferred to the Ukraine, but still home to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet). The country itself seems divided on whether it is an eastern outpost of the west, or a western outpost of the east.





Both Moscow and the West are eager to have the populous, and potentially prosperous Ukraine in their camp. Will the fault line running through the Ukraine become the front line of a Second Cold War?

BRZEZINSKI IN ANOTHER TIME

clipped from: www.foreignpolicy.com October 2007

Vladimir Putin’s Russia is growing more authoritarian at home and increasingly aggressive abroad.
China’s global clout seems to expand by the day.
And in the Middle East, a possible conflict with Iran looms on the horizon.

RUSSIA

Should the West fear Putin, and how should the United States deal with him going forward?

He’s basically a Russian autocrat at a time of considerable transition in Russia’s position geopolitically and in Russia’s national self-identity. The West should be clear regarding its own interests and promote them firmly. It should oppose any attempts at Russian imperial restoration, and whenever possible, it should cooperate with the Russians regarding issues of joint interest.

EUROPEAN UNION

There have been many dire warnings about EU member states’ reliance on Russian energy. Do you believe this is a threat

It’s a potential long-range threat. It’s important to the West to see access to the Caspian Sea energy resources and beyond the Caspian to Central Asia.
the West should promote such projects at the Nabucco pipeline through southeastern Europe to central Europe.

MID EAST POLICY

If the United States manages to get out of Iraq soon, should it take a hands-off approach to dealing with the Middle East

one has to look at the Middle East in terms of a very diversified geopolitical terrain and fashion a policy accordingly.

MIDDLE EAST PEACE

Do you think any progress can be made?

if the United States forthcomingly leads
no right of return,
the genuine sharing of Jerusalem,
lines with reciprocal accommodations, and a
demilitarized Palestinian state.

CREATION OF THE MUJAHIDEEN

Was it worth it to support a movement that led to the rise of the Taliban and al Qaeda?

Afghanistan was destroyed by the Soviets, and that is what has bred the Taliban years after. We would be in a terrible mess if we hadn’t supported the Afghans.

IRAN

You and many other critics of the Bush administration’s policy toward Iran argue that the United States needs to engage Iran.

simply calling them names or threatening to change the regime certainly is not going to be very productive. And a war with Iran would be a historical disaster

CHINA

do the United States and its allies need to find ways to counter the Chinese?

I don’t think all Asians want to be subject to Chinese hegemony, but the United States has an obvious interest in accommodating China and not seeking to exclude it from a prominent place in the global hierarchy. China has to be integrated into the system. That means it also has the right to enjoy a proper place in it.

NABUCCO: HOW TO SAVE EUROPE TEN YEARS FROM NOW... OR... AN EMPTY PIPELINE GOES THROUGH IRAN

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clipped from: www.robertamsterdam.com


both the upcoming potential supply cut to the West from Russia and the growing monopolization of the oil and gas market place an increased emphasis on the region's most highly prized resource trophy: Central Asia (for example, the central dispute in the Ukraine revolves around the non-transparency of the Russo-Turkmen gas trade).



Western governments and energy companies have one last, grandiose project up their sleeve to secure Turkmen natural gas -- the 2,050-mile, multi-entity project known as Nabucco. Its multiple transit phases and various manifestations would, if constructed, transport energy from the Caspian region, Middle East and Egypt via Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary to terminus destinations in Austria and the Central and Western European gas markets. With a current projected price tag of $10.1 billion

Nabucco would be nearly twice the length and triple the cost of BTC.

where the gas to fill it will come from.
initially Nabucco could utilize gas from the second phase development of Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz field beginning in 2013, he acknowledged that this meant a maximum of 13-14 bcm per year. But Nabucco's throughput capacity is projected to be more than double that, at 27-31 bcm, which explains the ardent courting of Berdymukhammedov (Turkmenistan) .



Russia currently supplies one-quarter of Europe's oil and 30 percent of its natural gas, and the Russo-Georgian conflict only heightened concerns in Brussels about the EU's growing dependence on Russian energy imports.

According to Barroso, the plan's "top priority" is developing the Southern Gas Corridor to deliver natural gas to Europe from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iraq, and Egypt via Turkey. Both the TCP and Nabucco pipelines are an integral part of the scheme.

Aliyev stated bluntly that Azerbaijan alone cannot provide sufficient resources for Nabucco, and that the project depends on the availability of Central Asian gas.

If true, reality trumps the EU's optimism.

Turkmenistan (Berdymukhammedov) has already signed an agreement with China to provide 30 bcm of gas annually, beginning in 2009, in addition to agreements with Russia for 50 bcm and Iran for 8 bcm. Since its annual production stands at about 60 bcm, it has in effect already agreed to provide 28 bcm more than the country produces.

Nevertheless, the planning sessions and discussions for both Nabucco and the Trans Caspian Pipeline continue.

US MISSILES, RUSSIAN GAS AND EUROPE

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clipped from: www.stratfor.com

Europe gets roughly a quarter of its natural gas supplies from Russia,

Gazprom announced that it would eventually increase prices from the already uncomfortable $420 per thousand cubic meters (tcm) to $720 per tcm.

a decrease in consumption led to the first drop in Russian exports to Europe in a decade — and forced Russia to reconsider its plan.

prices would remain low only for certain customers, meaning that Russia will trade better energy deals for what it wants politically.

Belarus, Ukraine, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Hungary reportedly have told Gazprom that they could default on payments if they get charged higher prices.
Russia has responded to such defaults by cutting supplies.



January 2006 when Ukraine and Russia were embroiled in a natural gas dispute. Russia cut Ukraine’s portion of the supplies out of its deliveries, which traveled across Ukraine to much of Europe. Ukraine then began siphoning off the supplies heading to Europe, leaving quite a few countries on the tail end of the supplies out in the cold.

Kiev is looking to fill the gap by raising natural gas prices to domestic consumers by 35 percent could trigger a massive response

But Ukraine, Belarus, continually defaults has allowed Moscow to use energy as a major lever in negotiations on every front with Kiev and Minsk

Contracts between EU countries and Russia are supposed to be decided by the European Union as a whole, not by individual states. However, most of these countries are already financially strapped and are considering individually negotiating with Russia.

70 percent of Russia’s exports to Europe go through Slovakia’s system. For Slovakia to be able to handle higher payments to Russia, it can simply charge more for that energy transport.



Czech Republic began feeling Russia’s wrath in the form of decreased oil supplies on the day Prague finalized missile defense plan with the United States. Russia has one thing on its mind when it comes to the Czech Republic: preventing the American missile defense deal.

Hungary is in the most extreme position because it is flat broke. Hungary will most likely turn back to its European allies for either more aid or a solution to the crisis.

This could bring the European Union together in a common stance over its long-debated Russian energy dependence. But even a united front will not create supplies or alternatives, this coupled with Russia’s attempts to deal with each EU country individually, the new energy crisis could skewer the European Union





clipped from: blog.kievukraine.info

Gazprom had warned Monday that its European customers could face a disruption of gas supply due if its dispute with Ukraine led the Kremlin to stop the supply of gas to the former Soviet satellite. Russia provides about a quarter of Europe's gas, and 80.0% of its exports transit through Ukraine.



The companies have until Jan. 1 to sign a new contract, and Russia is pushing for higher prices. Russia has warned that gas prices for Ukraine could rise to $400.00 per 1,000 cubic meters, from the current $179.50.

The Kremlin spent up to $2.5 billion supporting the ruble on Monday, according to TradeTheNews.com, marking the sixth time it has had to do so in December alone.

Capital flight from Russia has meanwhile compelled the country's billionaire oligarchs to ask for loans from the government in exchange for portions of their assets (often companies).

BATTLE OF THE PORTS: CHABAHAR VS GWADAR: INDIA VERSUS CHINA: US VERSUS?

clipped from: acorn.nationalinterest.in

The 218-km road connecting Delaram (on the Kandahar-Herat highway) to Zaranj, on the border with Iran has been completed.
It will provide landlocked Afghanistan an alternative access to the sea, the Iranian port of Chahbahar, allowing it to break free from Pakistan’s traditional stranglehold.

it remains to be seen if Iran will prove to be a better neighbour than Pakistan.
For Afghanistan, this is an opportunity to regain better access to the Indian market that it lost in 1947. For India, it is an opportunity to regain better access to Central Asia that it too lost in 1947.

US MILITARY SUPPLY ROUTE TO AFGHANISTAN

The Taliban has all but shut down the Pakistan supply route to Afghanistan. Russian routes are an option. The other option is to use the Iranian port of Chahbahar. The Indian government has spent over $1 billion to construct a multi-lane highway from the western Afghan city of Heart to the Iranian border to meet up with the road from Chahbahar. Some form of political deal with the regime in Tehran would enable the US and NATO to redirect most, if not all, the traffic that currently goes to Karachi—providing they retain control over Herat.



CHINA ALSO HAS A PLAN

clipped from: http://gawadarinnltd.com/page_1161468194468.html

In fact, Gwadar enjoys the status of a third Deep Sea Port of Pakistan which has a special significance with reference to trade links with Central Asian Countries, Persian Gulf, East Africa, United Arab Emirates and North Western India.

The Gwadar project came about as a result of a Sino-Pakistan agreement in March 2002, under which China Harbor Construction Corporation will build the port.

Beijing has provided $198 million for the first phase of the project and Islamabad's contribution has been $ 50 million. The scope of phase-1 includes construction of three multi-purpose berths each 200 meters long and capable of handling vessels up to 30,000 DWT.

By virtue of its excellent location, Gwadar port is also visualized to become a regional hub serving incoming and outgoing commercial traffic of the Middle Eastern and Gulf countries, the Xinjiang province of China, Iran in the west and Sri Lanka and Bangladesh in the south and east.



According to some sources, Beijing also intends to take advantage of Gwadar's accessible international trade routes to Central Asian republics and Xinjiang. The plan envisages extending China's east-west railway from the border city of Kashi to Peshawar.

The incoming and outgoing cargo from Gwadar can then be delivered to China through the shortest route from Karachi to Peshawar. The same road and rail network can also be used for the supply of oil from the Gulf to the western provinces of China.

Additionally, China could also gain rail and road access to Iran through Pakistan's internal road and rail network. Use of Gwadar port by China should accelerate the growth and development of the port and the hinterland and enhance its overall commercial and strategic value.

India is helping develop the Chabahar port and that would give it access to the oil and gas resources in Iran and the Central Asian states, in this it is competing with the Chinese which is building the Gwadar port, in Pakistani Baluchistan.

Iran plans to use Chabahar for transhipment to Afghanistan and Central Asia while reserving the port of Bandar Abbas as a major hub mainly for trade with Russia and Europe.



India, Iran and Afghanistan have signed an agreement to give Indian goods, heading for Central Asia and Afghanistan, preferential treatment and tariff reductions at Chabahar

Work on the Chabahar-Melak-Zaranj-Dilaram route from Iran to Afghanistan is in progress. Iran is with Indian aid upgrading the Chabahar-Melak road and constructing a bridge on the route to Zaranj. India's BRO is laying the 213-kilometer Zaranj-Dilaram road. It is a part of its USD 750 million aid package to Afghanistan.

The advantages that Chabahar has compared to Gwadar are the greater political stability and security of the Iranian hinterland and the hositlity and mistrust that the Pakistani Baluchis hold against the Punjabi dominated Pakistani Federal government. The Baluchis consider Sino-Pak initiative at Gwadar as a strategy from Islamabad to deny the province its deserved share of development pie. They also look with suspicion on the settlement of more and more non-Baluchis in the port area.

The Chabahar port project is Iran's chance to end its US sponsored economic isolation and benefit form the resurgent Indian economy. Along with Bandar Abbas, Chabahar is the Iranian entrepot on the North - South corridor. A strategic partnership between India, Iran and Russia to establish a multi-modal transport link connecting Mumbai with St. Petersburg. Providing Europe and the former Soviet republics of Central Asia access to Asia and vice-versa.