clipped from: ‘the Surge’, the American reinforcements sent to Iraq in 2007 to regain control of Baghdad.
if the US strategy did win such an important victory, why do America generals need more soldiers, currently 147,000 of them, in Iraq than they did before ‘the Surge’ started?
there are not one but three wars being fought out in the country since 2003:
- the first is the war of resistance against the American occupation by insurgents from the Sunni Arab community.
- The second is the battle between the Sunni and Shia communities as to who should rule the Iraqi state in succession to Saddam Hussein.
- The third conflict is a proxy war between the US and Iran to decide who should be the predominant foreign power in Iraq.
The real, though exaggerated, fall in violence in Iraq over the last year is a consequence of developments in all three of these wars, but they do not necessarily have much to do with ‘the Surge’.
the bloodbath of 2005-7 when Baghdad and central Iraq was ravaged by a sectarian civil war
There were 554 Iraqis killed in the fighting in June 2008, which is only a third of the figure for the same month a year earlier. This is progress, but it still makes Baghdad the most dangerous city in the world.
Each district iin Baghdad is
The best barometer for the real state of security in Baghdad is the attitude of Iraqi refugees, particularly the 2.4 million people who fled to Jordan and Syria. Though often living in miserable conditions and with their money running out, the refugees are generally not coming home to Iraq and, when they do, they seldom return to houses from which they have been forced to flee.
- sealed off by concrete walls.
- There are checkpoints every few hundred yards.
- Sunni and Shia do not visit each other areas unless they have to.
The best barometer for the real state of security in Baghdad is the attitude of Iraqi refugees, particularly the 2.4 million people who fled to Jordan and Syria. Though often living in miserable conditions and with their money running out, the refugees are generally not coming home to Iraq and, when they do, they seldom return to houses from which they have been forced to flee.
Baghdad has few mixed areas left and today is 75-80 per cent a Shia city. The demographic balance in the capital has shifted against the Sunni and this is unlikely to change.
The battle for Baghdad was won by the Shia and was ending even before ‘the Surge’ began in February 2007.
The battle for Baghdad was won by the Shia and was ending even before ‘the Surge’ began in February 2007.
It was the outcome of the struggle for the capital that caused a large part of the anti-American resistance to make a dramatic change of sides, switching suddenly from fighting to supporting US troops.
The attempt by al-Qa’ida in Iraq to take over the whole of the anti-occupation resistance in late 2006 was important in forcing other insurgent groups to ally themselves with the US as al-Sahwa or the Awakening movement. But perhaps a more important reason for the rise of al-Sahwa was that there was no point in the Sunni insurgents attacking the Americans if they were being driven from Iraq by the Shia. There are now some 90,000 former Sunni resistance fighters on the American payroll, but they happily express open hatred and contempt for the Iraqi government.
In the Fallujah area, for instance, it is very dangerous for either the Sunni chief of police or the al-Sahwa commander (they are brothers) to enter Baghdad. This is because Abu Ghraib at the entrance to the city is controlled by the much-feared and heavily-Shia al-Muthana Brigade, who might kill either of them on sight.
Another reason why violence has fallen
is the consequence of the Shia militiamen of the Mehdi Army being stood down by its leader Muqtada al-Sadr.
his strategy
to avoid direct military conflict with the US armed forces or his Shia rivals when backed by US firepower.
In March this year the Iraqi army launched a military offensive to take Basra from the Mehdi Army, an attack which at first failed to make headway until backed by US airpower.
Muqtada did not fight
For a military confrontation with the Iraqi army and the US he would need the support of Iran and this was not forthcoming.
Paradoxically, Iran and the US together are the two main supporters of the present Iraqi government. For Iran, Nouri al-Maliki in power in Baghdad leading a coalition of Shia religious parties allied to the Kurds is as good as it is going to get.
“People fail to realise that the success of ‘the Surge’ was the result of a tacit agreement between the US and Iran,”
Iraqis will not accept the occupation continuing indefinitely and Iran will not allow itself to be marginalized.
If McCain were to try to win a military victory in Iraq he could find the supposed achievements of ‘the Surge’ rapidly evaporating.
Iraqis will not accept the occupation continuing indefinitely and Iran will not allow itself to be marginalized.
If McCain were to try to win a military victory in Iraq he could find the supposed achievements of ‘the Surge’ rapidly evaporating.
No comments:
Post a Comment