Wednesday, December 24, 2008



clipped from:

both the upcoming potential supply cut to the West from Russia and the growing monopolization of the oil and gas market place an increased emphasis on the region's most highly prized resource trophy: Central Asia (for example, the central dispute in the Ukraine revolves around the non-transparency of the Russo-Turkmen gas trade).

Western governments and energy companies have one last, grandiose project up their sleeve to secure Turkmen natural gas -- the 2,050-mile, multi-entity project known as Nabucco. Its multiple transit phases and various manifestations would, if constructed, transport energy from the Caspian region, Middle East and Egypt via Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary to terminus destinations in Austria and the Central and Western European gas markets. With a current projected price tag of $10.1 billion

Nabucco would be nearly twice the length and triple the cost of BTC.

where the gas to fill it will come from.
initially Nabucco could utilize gas from the second phase development of Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz field beginning in 2013, he acknowledged that this meant a maximum of 13-14 bcm per year. But Nabucco's throughput capacity is projected to be more than double that, at 27-31 bcm, which explains the ardent courting of Berdymukhammedov (Turkmenistan) .

Russia currently supplies one-quarter of Europe's oil and 30 percent of its natural gas, and the Russo-Georgian conflict only heightened concerns in Brussels about the EU's growing dependence on Russian energy imports.

According to Barroso, the plan's "top priority" is developing the Southern Gas Corridor to deliver natural gas to Europe from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iraq, and Egypt via Turkey. Both the TCP and Nabucco pipelines are an integral part of the scheme.

Aliyev stated bluntly that Azerbaijan alone cannot provide sufficient resources for Nabucco, and that the project depends on the availability of Central Asian gas.

If true, reality trumps the EU's optimism.

Turkmenistan (Berdymukhammedov) has already signed an agreement with China to provide 30 bcm of gas annually, beginning in 2009, in addition to agreements with Russia for 50 bcm and Iran for 8 bcm. Since its annual production stands at about 60 bcm, it has in effect already agreed to provide 28 bcm more than the country produces.

Nevertheless, the planning sessions and discussions for both Nabucco and the Trans Caspian Pipeline continue.

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