Thursday, April 22, 2010

ISRAEL DOES RISK ANALYSIS


-Iran would respond to an Israeli attack by ramping up support to groups battling U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan
-If American soldiers start dying in greater numbers as a result of an Israeli unilateral attack, Americans could turn against Israel
-Iran could also disrupt the world’s oil supply
-“What will Americans say if Israel drags the U.S. into a war it didn’t want, or when they are suddenly paying $10 a gallon for gasoline and Israel is the reason for it,”

Iranian strategists: benefits of an Israeli attack
# the financial reward from a hike in oil prices
# the silencing of the regime’s domestic critics
# the deepening of ties between Turkey, Syria and the non-aligned international community
# the further isolation of Israel, whose political vulnerability is far greater than its military vulnerability
# doing limited damage and short term to Iran’s nuclear facilities

Iranian psyche of martyrdom. Shia's love to die for a religious cause. US/Israel do not.
vast
size of the country
Pop Ratio 25:1

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