Friday, May 14, 2010

The Inevitable Collapse of McChrystal's Afghan War Plan

McChrystal’s war plan is unravelling. It was entirely predictable. To create an ‘arc of security’ in the most densely populated regions, green shaded area. As the maps show, this area has seen many invasions over the last two thousand years.

The first move, invade Marjah variation of Marshall Lyautey’s ink spot theory: clear, secure, prevent the return of the Taliban. Then move from west to east and spread to Qandahar. The role of Afghan army and police forces is to hold.

Taliban re-infiltration means the Afghan security forces is insufficient or ineffective to protect and permanently cleanse the area.

US forces now needed to provide security in Marjah. The result: our forces being spread out, US pacification troops will form of an array of strong points, outposts, quick reaction reinforcements, kept on alert, with airpower, be unavailable for Qandahar offensive, vulnerable, attacked piecemeal, irregular, hit and run, on bases and supply routes. Rope-a-dope. under stress, ground down, increase jumpiness, trigger-happiness, more calls on artillery and air support, more civilian deaths, alienating the hearts and minds.

This is probably why Qandahar is being scaled back

Obama ignored Sun Tzu’s timeless wisdom

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