Monday, June 28, 2010
An Arab Woman Blues - Reflections in a sealed bottle...
the Iran-Iraq war was the thwarting Iranian political advancement in the Arab region by 2 decades. postponing the Iranian take over until 2003, the occupation of Iraq by Maliki, Hakeem, Sadr, Chalabi, and the rest...
American occupation achieved the Iranian role and its consolidation in the whole Arab region. Endless parroting about an imminent attack on Iran is pure BULLSHIT.
one needs to understand how Iran operates. It is by political maneuvering by using Shiism as an ideology, double political discourses and endless tricks.
Iranian occupation of Iraq by using armed militias, several armed militias in Iraq. Hezbollah is an armed militia of Iran, so is Hamas,(or some of its elements)
Iran operates in Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, Bahrain, Syria, Yemen, Kuwait, Qatar, Dubai and Mauritania. Also, the famous Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan alliance. It operates through armed groups. POLITICAL occupation/influence. (and heavy economic investments are part of it.
Iraq has American MILITARY occupation and Iranian POLITICAL occupation. political alliances in Iraq are only made with Iran's approval first.
Iranian society with its political Shiism revivalism is reclaiming its Persian roots away from the Arabization. Iran's contempt and hatred for anything Arab is a well known.
The double discourse is presented, cloaked in Islamic jargon, where Iran tries very hard to portray itself as an Islamic country that is above any sect or race. The Iraqi experiment has proved the fallacy of such Iranian claims.
Iran's use of Shiism is not out of love for Imam Ali, Hassan or Hussein, but a political tool to extend and consolidate its political and regional influence. Shiism in itself as a sect is not a Persian invention, Qum only became the center for Shiism relatively late. Arab Nejaf and Arab Kerbala were always the centers of learning for Shiism. neither Ali, nor Hassan nor Hussein were Furs - Persian, they all came from the Hijaz today's Saudi Arabia.
Turkey has no "Sunni revivalism" aspirations. It is based on secular institutions despite its current government of Islamic coloring. It is cleverly a combine secularism, democracy and still retain its adherence to Islam - a reformed, democratic Islam, is way more dangerous for the West and for Israel than an obscurantist theocracy. what if the Turkish model is contagious ?
Iran tries to maintain this "Islamic" political discourse. it has created, backed and armed the "Shiite only" parties in Iraq with its deadly sectarianism. Iran has also backed Al-Qaeda in Iraq. The latest Iranian charade of sending flotillas to Gaza indicates that Iran is VERY worried about the rise of Turkey as Hero for the Arabs.
Iran and Turkey have issues that are cause for an underlying conflict in Iraq. Iran supports the Turkish Kurdish rebels. Turkey is very much against the annexation of Kirkuk by the Iraqi Kurds whom the Iranians fully support. The sphere of competing influence is Iraq. Iranians have the upper hand which beats a couple of flotillas
Turkey will never join the EU, it is a Muslim country. Europe is battling anti-Islamic demons. It is in no position to accept a powerful Muslim country. Turkey has been left behind insofar as Iraq is concerned,
Turkey engages in weighty moves, bilateral ties with Syria, win over Arabs by playing a brokerage role, a sort of mediator of Peace. (Syria/Israel, Hamas/PA/Egypt, etc...
The massacres on the Mavi Marmara is not a surprise after Erdogan and the Shimon Peres engagement at Davos
Since Davos, the Turkish pro-Palestinian tone has been rising reaching the Iranian one, even surpassing it. Something that Iran has not taken too well.
Turkey's new found role in the Arab world, will earn it favors from the West who will use Turkey's rising power as a balancing act against Iran, weakening Iran's spreading influence. Some seeing Turkey and Iran at loggerheads can become a reality further down the line, Most analysts believe.
I disagree. everything will be done to weaken Turkey by both the Israelis and the Iranians. hoping to see that happen U.S including Israel realize that Iran poses no real threat. Iran did bringing about regime change to both the Iraqis and Afghans as per the American plan. Iranian and American seem to be in total harmony.
The Arabs most worried are Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan now that Iraq is gone, worries have turned into angst.
Egypt is Iran's priority right now with endless political manipulations - through Hezbollah, and Hamas. Hamas is part of the Muslim Brotherhood. Iran by co-opting
Hamas has won over the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. Iran's influence in Egypt is not a threat to their peace treaty with Israel but a threat to Egypt's political stability itself.
Turkey's rise was a coup de force. And this is where the Flotilla massacre marked a turning point for Iran, and for the Arabs - who, as usual have trapped themselves by their own treason and impotence. It has also put Hamas in a tight spot, however paradoxical this may sound.
What happens next in Iraq will show who controls most of what and who has the most long term influence in the region. And Iraq shall remain the playing ground for the strongest. The one who controls Iraq, also controls the rest of the region i.e has all the playing cards to do so.