Failure looms. COIN is out, targeted decapitation-back in. USG Intel now run by largest heroin dealer on the planet, USG has sub'd out intel for so long it doesnt have capacity. In the meantime, new intel chief, Wali Karzai using his control of intel and the USG to kill off his competition in the world wide drug trade (probably shipping product on USG planes, as well). Stan of Bananastan being set up to take the fall. Petraus runs for president in 2012
McChrystal shifts to raids - and Wali Karzai
General Stanley McChrystal's team once talked openly about the need to remove from power Ahmed Wali Karzai, the most powerful man in Kandahar. Wali Karzai's role in the opium trade was counter to the population-centric strategy. We are backing thugs. intelligence chief General Michael T Flynn
get rid of [Al] Capone.
Wali Karzai "will be allowed to stay in place", complete reversal, de-emphasize governance reform and focus on Special Operations Forces (SOF) raids on suspected Taliban leaders in Kandahar city. needs intelligence provided by Karzai
message from the Barack Obama, progress by the end of December 2010. So, shift from governance reform to night raids
failed "population centric" strategy for putting pressure on the Taliban, now "removal" of many "lower level" Taliban commanders by "special operations forces". Afghan government had taken too long to get representatives into the two key districts of Helmand. doubted it would be any better in Kandahar
downgrading of governance, new emphasis on targeting
Says Washington Post columnist David Ignatius, who frequently registers the latest thinking of the military leadership,
"Shaking up the power structure might put the United States on the side of the Pashtun man in the street," wrote Ignatius, "but it would open up a power vacuum that could be exploited by the Taliban." "There isn't time for risky experiments in Kandahar."
McChrystal had already ordered SOF raids dependent based on intelligence by Wali Karzai. on May 7, Karzai boasted he supplied "the majority of intelligence in this region"
NATO official confirmed, our intelligence comes from him, neither ISAF nor US SOF have intelligence networks of their own. Karzai dominated the flow with control over police and official Afghan intelligence. Karzai completed consolidation of political control over the national police using the Karzai private militia used by Central Intelligence Agency, the Kandahar Strike Force, to kill the province police chief and chief of criminal investigation.
More importantly, Karzai controls Kandahar branch National Directorate of Security which combines the intelligence and secret police. It is the largest network of informants in the province. It has taken the lead in carrying out the raids against the Taliban
McChrystal, accepts intelligence from Karzai, says it would be "foolish" to refuse it. He also uses information from drone recon which leads to constant mistakes. drone strikes had killed farmers
Karzai use US power against his political enemies, call down NATO air strikes or night raids by US SOF, target tribal opponents. The whole military effort is locked into Karzai's political strategy and his grip on power
McChrystal, ready to sacrifice political change to be able to do what he does best